Nuclear proliferation
In 1990 he published a controversial essay where he predicted that Europe would revert to a multipolar environment similar to that in the first half of the Twentieth century if American and Soviet forces left following the end of the Cold War.
In this essay and in the 1993 article in
Foreign Affairs The case for a Ukrainian nuclear deterrent, he argued that to reduce the dangers of war, the United States should encourage Germany and Ukraine to develop a nuclear arsenal, while working to prevent the rise of hyper-nationalism. Mearsheimer presented several possible scenarios for a post-Cold-War Europe from which American and Russian forces had departed. He believed that a Europe with nuclear proliferation was most likely to remain at peace, because without a nuclear deterrent Germany would be likely to once more try to conquer the continent (See pages 32—33). Also, he refused the possibility that the Ukraine would give up its nuclear arsenal (a remnant of the soviet stockpile there) though this in fact occurred. However in 2010 following the draft of the START Treaty, Ukraine has consented to rid of its entire former Soviet nuclear stockpile. When challenged on the former assertion at a lecture given to the International Politics department at the University of Wales in Aberystwyth, he maintained that in spite of all European integration and expansion, he still believed that his predictions would come true if the United States military left Europe.
Also, in op-ed pieces on the
New York Times written in 1998 and 2000, Mearsheimer defended India's right to acquire nuclear weapons. In support of this position, he argued that India has good strategic reasons to want a nuclear deterrent, especially in order to balance against China and Pakistan, guaranteeing regional stability. He also criticized US counter-proliferation policy towards India, which he considered unrealistic and harmful to American interests in the region.
Iraq war (1991)
In January and early February 1991, Mearsheimer published two op-eds in the
Chicago Tribune and the
New York Times arguing that the war to liberate Kuwait from Iraqi forces should be quick and lead to a decisive US victory, with less than 1,000 American casualties. This view countered the conventional wisdom at the start of the war, that predicted a conflict lasting for months and costing thousands of American lives. Mearsheimer's argument was based on several points. First, the Iraqi Army was a Third World military, unprepared to fight mobile armored battles. Second, US armored forces were better equipped and trained. Third, US artillery was also far better than its Iraqi counterpart. Fourth, US airpower, unfettered by the weak Iraqi air force, should prove devastating against Iraqi ground forces. Fifth and finally, the forward deployment of Iraqi reserves boded ill for their ability to counter US efforts to penetrate the Iraqi defense line along the Saudi-Kuwaiti border. All these predictions came true in the course of the war.
Iraq war (2003-present)
Mearsheimer is an outspoken opponent of the Iraq War. In 2002, he was one of thirty-three professors to sign a letter in the
New York Times arguing against President Bush’s intention to invade Iraq and topple Saddam Hussein from power. He felt that invading Iraq would distract from the war against al Qaeda, which he described as a greater threat to national security. The war was unnecessary, Mearsheimer felt, because the United States could continue to effectively contain Hussein, as it had done for over a decade since the Gulf War. His thinking on the matter is underpinned by a belief in a rational deterrence theory of weapons of mass destruction...namely, that there is no way by which a power with nuclear weapons equal to or less than another power can effectively coerce it into policies against its choosing (this presumes, and he holds, that Saddam Hussein was a rational actor). Mearsheimer predicted that after invading Iraq, the U.S. would need to occupy it for decades. He also wrote several Op-Ed pieces in 2003, including
An Unnecessary War and
Keeping Saddam in a Box in which he made the same points.
In a December 2004 interview ,Mearsheimer argued that the architects of the invasion, however misguided, weremotivated by a sincere desire to protect American interests. In his March 2006 paper with Walt (discussed in the section above on the Israel Lobby) he argued that "the war was motivated in good part by a desire to make Israel more secure".
He further wrote in an article in
Foreign Policy in May 2006 Unrestricted Access:
We also traced the lobby’s impact on recent U.S. policies, including the March 2003 invasion of Iraq. Neoconservatives inside and outside the Bush administration, as well as leaders of a number of prominent pro-Israel organizations, played key roles in making the case for war. We believe the United States would not have attacked Iraq without their efforts. That said, these groups and individuals did not operate in a vacuum, and they did not lead the country to war by themselves. For instance, the war would probably not have occurred absent the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, which helped convince President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney to support it.