Ugh. In a nutshell, it's simply bad science writing -- almost an abuse of science, really. It's hackwork with some numbers sprinkled on top.
Here's the deal: Human behavior cannot be predicted. It can be observed, it can be recorded, it can be tabulated, it can even be manipulated and limited in certain situations, but it cannot be predicted with any meaningful scientific certainty.
This author believes that if you look simply sit back and allow a population to do whatever it wants then some members of that population will do something...and there you have it...the ones that made choice X are now a 'network' and, ta-dah, his prophecy is fulfilled. He also says that some members of the network will choose to leave the network, while others will stay while the network undergoes changes. Well, yeah...duh. First of all, those aren't specific predictions about human behavior. Second of all, the sciences, even the social sciences, don't work like that.
If human behavior was predictable, then why are some very smart and informed people losing money in the stock market, in sports gambling, or in real estate, every single day? And why does almost half of the population watch their chosen candidate lose an election every time there is an election?
If this author was capable of consistently and accurately predicting the future decisions of consumers he'd be cashing million dollar checks from Wall St. and not bother writing books.
Did this author predict Kodak would virtually disappear before the digital camera was invented? Did he say how and when and why? Did he see Blackberry shrinking to insignificance? Did he shout from the rooftops that myspace was going to shrivel up and blow away? And if he did, what was his beforehand basis for the predictions and what was the alternative result he forecast? And how many similar predictions did he make using similar data but get everything wrong?
There are some very good books regarding statistics out there (I happen to be a fan of Larry Gonnick's 'Cartoon Guide to Statistics' which is a fun read and accessible). There are also plenty of good books about economics and market analysis and psychology. This isn't one of them.
However, all that being said, this is what most people of the facebook generation want to hear - they feel connected to something so they think they're going to ride a wave into the next big thing too and life is just one big happy Pepsi commercial. Horrid. Books like this and thinking of this caliber make me fear for the future.
Here's the deal: Human behavior cannot be predicted. It can be observed, it can be recorded, it can be tabulated, it can even be manipulated and limited in certain situations, but it cannot be predicted with any meaningful scientific certainty.
This author believes that if you look simply sit back and allow a population to do whatever it wants then some members of that population will do something...and there you have it...the ones that made choice X are now a 'network' and, ta-dah, his prophecy is fulfilled. He also says that some members of the network will choose to leave the network, while others will stay while the network undergoes changes. Well, yeah...duh. First of all, those aren't specific predictions about human behavior. Second of all, the sciences, even the social sciences, don't work like that.
If human behavior was predictable, then why are some very smart and informed people losing money in the stock market, in sports gambling, or in real estate, every single day? And why does almost half of the population watch their chosen candidate lose an election every time there is an election?
If this author was capable of consistently and accurately predicting the future decisions of consumers he'd be cashing million dollar checks from Wall St. and not bother writing books.
Did this author predict Kodak would virtually disappear before the digital camera was invented? Did he say how and when and why? Did he see Blackberry shrinking to insignificance? Did he shout from the rooftops that myspace was going to shrivel up and blow away? And if he did, what was his beforehand basis for the predictions and what was the alternative result he forecast? And how many similar predictions did he make using similar data but get everything wrong?
There are some very good books regarding statistics out there (I happen to be a fan of Larry Gonnick's 'Cartoon Guide to Statistics' which is a fun read and accessible). There are also plenty of good books about economics and market analysis and psychology. This isn't one of them.
However, all that being said, this is what most people of the facebook generation want to hear - they feel connected to something so they think they're going to ride a wave into the next big thing too and life is just one big happy Pepsi commercial. Horrid. Books like this and thinking of this caliber make me fear for the future.
